December to Now
So why is Michigan in this position? Great question, everyone (collectively, all at once). Michigan is currently sitting at #19 in the Pairwise ranking thanks to some fairly inconsistent play, and abysmal defensive coverage. As one of the nation's highest scoring offenses, the trade off with an average-below average defense has been apparent. They've been a team all year that proves they can score goals (and score in a hurry), but everyone knows, defense wins championships. Even in games where they've dismantled an opponent's defense they've still been too nonchalant in the defensive zone, resulting in a Goals Against Average of 3.00/gm. Woof. When your offense has to score at least 4 goals a game, you know you're in for a rough game. I've been lucky enough to follow this team more than any other team in recent years, and I can honestly say that the defensive zone breakdowns have been an Achilles heel for us all season long. Getting caught on long shifts appears to be a recurring theme, as does half-assed chips up the halfwall. At the UM-Minn game on 2/14, I think I lost count of the number of times UM players were standing/puck watching in the D-Zone. It honestly looked like they were running a zone of some sorts, allowing Minnesota to cash in on what looked to be a powerplay.
Inconsistent Defense leads to inconsistent goaltending. While I personally feel Steve Racine gives Michigan a better chance night-in and night-out, Naglevoort has proven that he too, can provide the team with a defensive backbone. He's also proven that he's no more invulnerable when the team plays poorly. Goaltending, like many things, comes down to consistency. Becoming comfortable, tracking pucks, challenging the play, being in control of the game...these are all things that become second nature to goaltenders when they're playing with confidence. This team, defensively, reminds me of the 2006 team. Splitting between goalies, running wild in the defensive zone, having to get into track meets to beat teams...I'm not liking the trend I'm seeing, but I'm still hopeful the D-zone gets cleaned up.
Michigan is 9-5 in B1G play through 2/22, which puts them in a tie with the Gophers. Looking back on last weekend, the Friday loss to Ohio is undeniably huge. Instead of having a 3 pt lead, and being able to squander a game the rest of the way, Michigan is now backed into a "must win" situation. If a playoff mood isn't already in full effect at Yost Ice Arena, it definitely will be now. We'll get to the logistics in a second, but the race for the B1G isn't just heating up anymore, it's engulfed in flames. Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, and MSU are all fighting for the top spot, and almost all teams seemingly control their destiny, which is scary. Real scary. Michigan has been trending down, having given up their lead in the B1G standings. They're 2-4 in their last 6 games, all against B1G opponents. The ship needs to get "rightened", and rightened in a hurry! Here's why...
Let's Get Real!
So, in true Red Berenson fashion, let's bring the real talk. What does it mean if Michigan loses even a single game the rest of the way? What does it mean if they miss the tourney this year? What do they need to do to get there? Let's break it down week by week.
Last week's loss to OSU hurts, big time. Losing points to a cellar dweller simply can't happen at this point in the season. A clear indication that the team isn't playing as well as it should be. Looking a head to this week, a home series vs. Wisconsin, Michigan HAS to take care of business. Notice how I emphasized "has", well that's because a loss to Wisconsin virtually knocks them out of the playoff picture. While one loss doesn't technically push them over the bubble, in order to be safe, they need to sweep this weekend. A loss at home to an awful Wisconsin team would hurt worse than a loss last week. If they lose one game this weekend, they'd have to win out the rest of the season, which (barring other team's results) would put Michigan at #15 in the pairwise, which still might not be enough to sneak in. Leave it at this, Michigan needs a sweep. Period.
The following week at Penn State scares the living BeJesus out of me. That team is dangerous. That team has our number. That team is much better than when we last saw them in November, an 8-1 victory at the friendly confines of Yost, Assuming Michigan sweeps Wisco, I think suffering one loss here is tolerable, but not acceptable. Again, look at it this way, if Michigan losses one game the rest of the way, that will land them around the #15 spot, again, making their chances of getting at at-large bid extremely difficult. Leave it at this, a sweep helps, DRAMATICALLY.
Last will be MSU, and for all extensive purposes, let's just say it's the same as PSU. Michigan needs to win out here, a loss again puts them around #15, two losses knocks them out. UM needs to sweep.
Q: What if Michigan wins every game from here on out?
Elementary, my dear Watson. If Michigan wins from here on out, it puts them in a much more comfortable spot. Again, pending other results, if solely Michigan were to win out today, that would leave them in the #10 spot of the Pariwise rankings. A safe spot, indeed, and I'd be willing to bet that the B1G #1 seed would likely go to them (unless Minnesota wins out as well). I'd be willing to bet $5 that if Michigan wins every game from here on out, they'll make the NCAAs regardless of how they do in the B1G tourney.
Q2: What if Michigan loses one game?
Questions are heating up now. If Michigan loses one game, they could still possibly find a seat at the table in the NCAAs, but it's very unlikely. I'd give it a 10% chance. I'm sure I could find something to work through all the scenarios, but let's just say it'd take a near miracle for Michigan to get an at-large bid with one more loss. One more loss to a B1G opponent could drop Michigan to 3rd place in the standings, there's obviously other factors at play here, but let's just say they could possibly end up as low as #3/4. That wouldn't be good at all. That first round bye in the B1G tournament is HUGE (although I personally don't feel it's the end of the world if we don't get it).
Q3: What happens if Michigan loses 2 games?
Back to basics here...if Michigan loses 2 games, the at-large bid is essentially gone, and the only route to get to the NCAAs is by winning the B1G playoffs. I don't think I need to remind you how that worked out for us last year...
Q4: What happens if Michigan makes the Tourney, where do they go and who should they fear?
If Blue makes it to the tourney, they'll probably pull a 3-4 seed, which doesn't necessarily match up nicely for first round opponents. There's still too much in play to determine what exactly could/would happen. I firmly believe the Midwest regional (in South Bend) would be the best destination for Michigan to escape and make a FF appearance. Assuming Minnesota State-Mankato is the #1 seed there, I still think Michigan has the best chance of knocking them off. Manakto is a very tested and veteran team, and an upset would be difficult, but still possible. The other three regions wouldn't be good for Michigan, however, crazier things have happened.
Q5: What if Michigan doesn't make the Tourney?
No bueno. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that if Michigan doesn't make the tournament this year, this season would be the last coached by Red Berenson. Now now, I know what you're thinking, Red still has one more year under contract, but he's always been a firm believer that the program is more important than him and if it's not trending the right direction, he'd have no problem stepping aside. I for one, would love to see Red for one more year, but you never know. Also, Michigan missing the tourney could very well lead to some early departures. I don't really see a scenario where Dylan Larkin stays after this year, but missing the tourney would most likely reaffirm that. They kid has so much potential, it's hard to see him in a sweater that has a block M on it next year. Missing the tourney could lead to other departures as well. Werenski would be draft eligible, and although I do think one more year could benefit the young blue-liner, I wouldn't be surprised if he bolted as well. Motte, Compher, Copp, Nieves and Kile are all other players who might toy with the idea of leaving. I don't expect all of them to, but if I had to guess, those would be the 7 players who could potentially make the jump to pro hockey. I'd obviously love to see everyone back, but pro hockey certainly has it's draws.
Another negative, if Michigan misses the tournament for a third consecutive year, it'll be the first time there's been a three year drought since 1987-1990, when Red was just starting to right the ship. Of course, after that, Michigan then went on a 22 year run without missing the playoffs, a feat that may not be accomplished for a long time.
Recap
In short, Michigan HAS to catch fire, and it starts this weekend. We need to start generating confidence and we need (need need need need need need need need need) to play better in the defensive zone. Racine is a gamer for sure, as shown in his freshman year when he nearly single-handedly carried Michigan to the CCHA title. None of the teams are too far out of Michigan's league, but a slip up will cost them the season.
Ninja edit: I've also had some time free up, so I'm planning on updating this blog more frequently, hopefully every Sunday night I'll post. We'll see how good I do.
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